Analysis What will happen to the war in Ukraine in the winter?

Gemma Robson from our REACH Ukraine team was quoted in the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty article on Ukraine in the winter.

“I expect this winter to worsen people’s vulnerabilities and needs, which will unfortunately lead to their internal displacement and possibly to the search for refuge across the border in neighbouring countries,” explained Gemma Robson, an expert in Ukraine at the Swiss think tank REACH Initiative.

“At the moment, what we are seeing is a large-scale deterioration of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including heating and power generation, as well as logistics networks. That means we expect massive power outages as well as difficulties in transporting critical supplies across the country,” says Gemma Robson.

The REACH Initiative is monitoring the situation at the borders of the countries neighbouring Ukraine. According to Gemma Robson, the number of Ukrainians who have crossed the border lately in Romania has already begun to increase.

“At the moment, it’s not that cold in Ukraine. The weather is easy to manage,” Robson says.

The European Commission has so far allocated around EUR 523 million to humanitarian aid programmes for civilians affected by the war in Ukraine. Of this amount, about 38 million euros have reached the Republic of Moldova. Gemma Robson describes the EU’s humanitarian aid to Ukraine so far as “fantastic”.

“As a result of discussions with members of several communities in Ukraine, we can see the positive impact that humanitarian support has on them,” says the reach initiative expert. Her organization collected information both from people in areas accessible to NGOs and humanitarian teams, as well as from those located in active conflict zones.

30 October, 2022